Wednesday, March 17, 2004

After the bombing in Baghdad today, I am now increasingly skeptical of claims of responsibility, when they occur that is. I am increasingly inclined now to think that "a state" is perhaps responsible for some of the recent terrorism: (I am referring specifically to the bombing in Spain, and the bombing of mosques and civilian targets in Iraq). I am not convinced that the claim by Abu Hafs battalion is necessarily credible. I went back and read carefully the statement that was faxed to Al-Quds Al-Arabi last week, and which claimed responsibility for the Spain bombing. I am not sure whether this is Al-Qa`idah, or whether another group is using Al-Qa`idah's name to hide its own identity. I believe that Al-Qa`idah is not sophisticated enough, or interested enough, to follow internal political developments in Spain, and wanting to take sides in them. I could be mistaken, but Abu Hafs Battalion also claimed responsibility for the East Coast blackout last year. Now that in itself is not significant. Palestinian groups (Fath, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad) often claimed responsibility for attacks that they were not responsible for, which does not mean that they were not responsible for attacks at all. And having read Abu Hafs Batallion's statement today, one passing sentence struck me; it said: "We say to the unit of Abu Rabah, the leadership has approved the offer. Work begins when the delegate arrives." What is that? Is that a real coded message, or a scare tactic? Also, I should point out that the Bush administration is in trouble either way. If there is some state (I am not ready to offer my suspicions now) behind the attacks, then the entire course of the war on terrorism is proceeding on false premises. If, on the other hand, Al-Qa`idah is responsible for the Spain and Iraq attacks, then the claims by Bush officials that they have largely destroyed the leadership and operational capabilities of the organization cannot be substantiated. And today (tomorrow, Thursday's edition), Al-Hayat prints on the first page a statement that it says was sent by none other than Kata'ib Abu Hafs Al-Masri. They did not print the whole statement in full, for some reason. Saudi intelligence must have prevented them. This one was saying that the new Spanish government will be given a testing period, a truce of some sort. And then it refers to the US election and says that basically the organization prefers George W. Bush "because we will not find somebody more stupid than you," because it says he prefers force over wisdom. But then it says that there is no real difference between Kerry and Bush, although Kerry "will kill the nation when it is distracted," whatever that means. What a mess.